Looking at the Twins for 2014, I’ll begin sharing some thoughts and speculations with a review of the outfielders currently on the 40-man roster.
Based on past success, only one outfielder is a given as a regular for 2014: Josh Willingham. Even though he did not have a good year last year, the hope is his back slide was not the beginning of the inevitable genuine decline due to age, but the result of an injury plagued year. The Twins are counting on him returning to respectability as a power hitter and run producer this year. At his age, there is no guarantee, but I would be surprised if he does not at least return to being a productive middle of the lineup player. His defense in left field is a liability, so my wish is he would be at least part of the DH rotation, if not eventually becoming the full time DH. His record as a DH thus far is not very impressive and that may be because he has openly stated he does not like being a DH, but he may need an attitude adjustment if and when the younger future stars arrive to play in the field.
The next most likely starter is Oswaldo Arcia. Last year, he demonstrated he is ready to play regularly and the Twins are looking forward to his growth as a hitter. Like Willingham, defense is not his strong suit, but most of his outfield time in the minor leagues was in right field, where he is likely to be opening day of 2014, so he should be at least adequate. He most likely will be part of the DH rotation as well.
Center field is perhaps the most unsettled outfield position at this point. The front runner for opening day is Alex Presley, not only because of his presence there after being acquired in a trade last August, but also because my belief is Aaron Hicks is not quite ready yet for the full time pressures. Last year it became painfully obvious Hicks had been rushed from AA to the major leagues. He did not have a good year at the plate even after being demoted to Rochester. If it was my decision to make, I would decide now to start him at AAA Rochester when the season opens to allow him to experience everyday success against good pitching. I would do that no matter how well he hits in spring training. Last year demonstrated that spring success does not necessarily translate to consistent production at the major league level.
Unless there is some change before opening day, Chris Parmelee is most likely to be the fourth outfielder as well as serving as the primary backup first baseman. This will be a make or break year for Parmelee. If he does not find a consistent hitting stroke with some power, he will almost certainly not be on the roster later in the season. Becoming consistent will be a challenge as he is not going to be a regular, barring injury thrusting him into that status.
Max Kepler is the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster as of today. He is a promising young power hitter, but will probably begin in high A Fort Myers this year.
Beyond the present 40-man roster, there are three other outfielders that deserve mention here. Jason Kubel was signed to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp this spring. If he shows he is healthy and still capable of hitting, I see him as the primary DH, if not in a platoon situation with someone. Based on past experience, I’d rather see him in left field and Willingham at DH, but that is just wishful thinking. If he is not healthy or does not show some hitting prowess this spring, he will be traded or released, because the Twins have enough DH-OF types to try to find playing time for.
Darin Mastroianni is another player worth considering. With some experience at all three outfield positions, a decent arm and excellent speed on the base paths, he is a capable major league backup outfielder. During the off-season the numbers game found him being dropped from the 40-man roster and sent outright to Rochester, but if Hicks starts at Rochester as I’m suggesting he should, the Twins almost have to have a versatile player such as Mastroianni on the active roster or they would have no capable backup in center field. He might even push Presley for the starting role.
So many of us in the Twins fan blogosphere have such high hopes for the number one prospect in all of baseball, Byron Buxton, that we are tempted to rush him to the needy big league club, but I hope he begins at AA New Britain and is allowed to grow and be promoted on meritorious performance. Patience is essential in his case.
Until the youngsters arrive, the Twins’ outfield will not be a defensive strength, but assuming all perform up to minimum expectation, the offense from this group should be adequate if not a true strength. A return to 2012 form for Willingham and a breakout year for Arcia along with major league average success for Presley (or a breakout year for Hicks, if he cracks the lineup) the outfield could become a real strength and a much needed improvement in power and run production this year.